Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment data reaffirm our view that the labour market is experiencing only a gradual recovery. Indeed, the unemployment rate is still high, while survey indicators point to... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov) December’s rise in the European Commission’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it at its highest level since March 2011, thus supporting the message from the PMIs that GDP growth... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s rise in euro-zone inflation mainly reflected anticipated energy effects and will therefore not deter the ECB from its commitment to sustained policy loosening. 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone will be back in the spotlight in 2017 In 2016, weak inflation resulted in strong real disposable income growth for consumers, which in turn helped to support better-than-expected real GDP growth. The decent pace of growth, combined with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising UK trade surplus another risk for the euro-zone The euro-zone’s trade surplus with the UK is likely to fall as a result of sterling’s depreciation. We think that this will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points per year in 2017... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry won’t prevent a slowdown in overall growth The short-term outlook for euro-zone industry is positive. Surveys suggest that output growth will rise in the coming months and, if sustained, the recent decline of the euro should provide a boost... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) In October, signs of fiscal slippage eased somewhat in the euro zone’s periphery. But the Greek bailout deal remains at risk of collapse and the growing likelihood of a bail-out for Italian banks... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish Draghi signals prolonged ECB market presence While the ECB announced today that it would slow the pace of its asset purchases from next April, it also committed to buying for longer than anticipated. What’s more, it expressed a clear bias... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q3) The final estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth was driven mainly by household spending. But with consumers’ real income growth now slowing as energy inflation rises, spending growth, and thus GDP... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) October’s rise in retail sales and November’s decent euro-zone PMIs are consistent with an acceleration of GDP growth in Q4. But with Italy’s “No” vote heightening political risks, the prospects for... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Largest yields falls now behind us, but still room to move lower Although government bond yields have ticked up recently, modest rates of GDP growth across the euro-zone and a low interest rate environment will continue to be positive for capital values over the... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
