Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q4 confirmed that the region’s recovery remained very weak at the end of last year but provided some tentative signs that it is becoming better... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The latest euro-zone retail sales data and PMIs provided reassurance that the euro-zone economic recovery continued at the start of the year. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook QE to boost property values through yield compression Recent economic developments in the euro-zone suggest increased scope for yield compression in commercial property markets. As such, in our latest Analyst we have increased our forecasts for capital... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s continued fall in euro-zone consumer prices and the still-high rate of unemployment in January confirm that the ECB faces an uphill battle against the threat of deflation. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data showed that credit conditions were healthy at the start of the year, suggesting the ECB’s policy stimulus is already having an effect. 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer surveys are consistent with slow and steady growth. But even if this can be sustained as the Greek crisis continues, it will do little to erode the spare capacity... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek concessions leave deal on shaky ground In this Update , we analyse the latest agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup to assess how much ground the two sides have won on the key issues. It is clear that Greece has made huge concessions... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI provided some reassurance that the region’s recovery may have continued in the first quarter of 2015 despite the ongoing crisis in Greece. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
