Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Property markets continue to chug along nicely Investment in euro-zone commercial property rose by 11% y/y in Q1, boosted by a surge in activity in Germany and Spain. And with yields falling, and capital values rising, at close to the rates seen... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone industrial production confirms that the sector had a poor Q1. But that was partly due to the effects of unseasonably warm weather on energy output, while surveys point to a... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A rising tide lifts all boats Survey data suggest that economic momentum among the major euro-zone economies has converged in 2017. Indeed, in April the spread between the Composite PMIs for Germany, France, Italy and Spain was... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) Despite March’s rise in retail sales, consumer indicators suggest that household spending growth slowed in Q1. Meanwhile, the final euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the economy made a strong start... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Marine Le Pen gone soft on “Frexit”? National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has often been at pains throughout this election campaign to avoid the topic of a French exit from the European Union and the euro. But this is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prel. Flash) & PPI (Mar.) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP supported the message from earlier national data that the recovery maintained a decent pace in Q1. However, economic growth is still putting little... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) General government figures for 2016 revealed that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although some countries still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile, timelier central... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.), Final Man. PMI (Apr.) March’s small fall in the level of euro-zone unemployment came as something of a disappointment and suggests that, despite the growing strength of the economy, wage growth will remain subdued and keep... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey provides more good news for ECB This week’s Bank Lending Survey brought more good news for the ECB. Lending conditions have continued to improve, and growth in the demand for credit points to a continued decent recovery in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation put it back in line with the ECB’s target, but the rise reflected the timing of Easter and we doubt that it will lead the Bank to alter its view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with subdued core inflation. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June Given the shift in Mr Draghi’s language at today’s press conference, we think that in June the ECB will remove the reference to “lower” interest rates from its forward guidance. While this would end... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish CPI (Apr.) April’s increases in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate rose back to the ECB’s target of close to 2%. But the increase partly reflected the timing of Easter... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that euro-zone growth accelerated further at the start of Q2. But with consumers’ inflation expectations falling back, we do not expect the ECB to signal... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival The opinion polls were right for once and a strong showing for centrist liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French election has raised hopes of growth-boosting labour market... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
