Europe Economics Weekly Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support The latest labour market data paint a positive picture of employment conditions in the euro-zone. Indeed, in Q1 the level of euro-zone employment finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak. What’s more... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed a touch in April, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. We think that net trade will provide a small boost to GDP growth in 2017. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone? The UK election is unlikely to have major adverse near-term effects on the euro-zone as damage to UK demand from political uncertainty may be offset by looser fiscal policy. A softer Brexit could... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone industry began Q2 on a positive note with a healthy rise in production in April and surveys point to an acceleration to come. Meanwhile, the region’s labour market recovery continued, with... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew in Q1 at a faster pace than previously indicated, despite a slowdown in consumer spending. And with activity surveys pointing to a pick-up in GDP growth in Q2, the euro-zone... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Retail sales made a subdued start to Q2, but May’s rise in consumer confidence to a 10-year high suggests that growth should pick. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the ECB “normalise” policy? We think that the ECB will taper its asset purchases to zero in the first six months of 2018 and begin raising interest rates in 2019. The euro-zone economy as a whole should continue to perform well... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) May’s final Composite PMI points to a pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2. And this strength is broad based. While growth has remained strongest in Germany and Spain, recoveries in France and Italy... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property cycle a step closer to turning Prime euro-zone property yields still have scope to fall over the next 18 months. However, with a stronger outlook for the euro-zone economy, we have increased our forecasts for government bond yields... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Consumer slowdown won’t throw recovery off track Although the euro-zone’s consumer sector currently appears to be in good shape, the combination of higher inflation compared to last year and continued weak wage growth points to annual household... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral economies, with the largest countries faring best. There was also good news for Portugal, which is no longer deemed to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
