Europe Economics Weekly Austrian populists to frustrate EU integration plans The Austrian general election taking place this Sunday is likely to result in a far-right, populist party entering government. While this probably won’t have significant domestic economic... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a strong Q3, contributing to the continued healthy economic recovery. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals for Q3 The latest indicators have given mixed signals about the euro-zone economy in Q3. Somewhat ironically, the “hard” data available so far have been rather soft. Industrial production rose by just 0.1%... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q3. But September’s Composite PMI implies that overall GDP growth remained fairly strong. 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy’s budget deficit has widened and its Government plans to... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Sep.) The rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment in September suggests that the eurozone’s economic recovery will continue at a decent pace. Along with the pick-up in consumer inflation... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will Germany’s election mean for the economy? The German election taking place on Sunday is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. But the composition of the next coalition – which is likely to be either another grand coalition... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the recovery has regained momentum after a brief summer lull. While this will embolden policymakers, as inflation is set to rise only... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How could tighter ECB policy affect property yields? Tighter monetary policy in the UK, US and euro-zone in the next couple of years will undoubtedly cause risk-free rates to rise. However, given that property’s yield spread against risk-free rates is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Portuguese bond yields be sustained? Portugal’s economic recovery is strengthening, while it has also made progress with recapitalising its banks and strengthening its fiscal position. This is reflected in the decline in government bond... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone moving closer to fiscal union? European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week gave his support to the creation of a European Monetary Fund and a euro-zone “budget line”. Eventually, these would result in slightly... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
