Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) The euro-zone economy posted a stronger-than-expected 0.6% quarterly expansion in Q3, but October’s CPI data will have reinforced the ECB’s judgement that its inflation goal is not yet in sight. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment suggests that political uncertainty has had little effect on the economy. While the available hard data imply that euro-zone GDP... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained strong in September and point to a continued healthy pace of growth. But they remain consistent with only limited inflationary pressure, suggesting that the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery to withstand political concerns Politics are in focus yet again, with the German and Austrian elections revealing reduced support for mainstream parties and the push for Catalan independence creating much uncertainty. But business... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) Despite declining in October, the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economic recovery continued at a healthy pace at the start of Q4. But growth is being driven mainly by the core economies... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How does the impact of e-commerce vary in Europe? E-commerce is taking an increasing share of total retail sales across Europe, but its reach and impact in the short-to-medium-term will vary by country and across different retailer types. 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish and Italian “separatists” not yet an economic worry Madrid’s plan to impose direct rule in Catalonia is likely to be met by protests, which would cause shortterm disruption. The risk of a more serious economic deterioration is growing, but as things... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in August adds to the evidence that the region’s economy performed well in Q3. And the outlook for exports is bright. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
