Europe Economics Update Will the ECB raise its interest rates in tandem? While most forecasters now agree with our long-held view that the first ECB rate hike will come in September 2019, there is no clear consensus over which rate will rise first or why. In this Update... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI provides some reassurance that the softness recorded so far in 2018 is not the start of a sustained downturn, and that the pace of GDP growth will remain fairly... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal essentially a restatement of old fudges The Eurogroup seems set to agree the payment of Greece’s final loan tranche tomorrow and to offer a cash buffer to help it through the early months after it exits its bailout in August. But mooted... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the ECB still hike if the Fed started cutting? We expect the ECB to start raising interest rates in September 2019, not long before we judge that the US Fed will start to cut. Such divergence between the two central banks would be almost... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to announce taper despite Italy fears Despite worries about Italy’s new Government, we suspect that the ECB will announce after its meeting on 14th June that it will end its asset purchases this year. It might also strengthen its guidance... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), IP (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1 largely reflected temporary effects. So we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better over the rest of the year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Did the euro-zone catch a cold in Q1? We think that temporary factors – including industrial action, cold weather and an outbreak of the flu – explain about 0.2 percentage points of the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth from 0.7%... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending had a weak first quarter. And April’s Composite PMI implies that the pace of GDP growth is unlikely to fully rebound after a slow Q1... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
