Europe Economics Update What would be a dovish ECB taper? Given upward pressure on the single currency, we now see the ECB tapering its asset purchases over nine months instead of six next year. We still expect it to announce the full programme in advance... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) Despite July’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production, growth in the sector will probably slow in Q3. But with more timely survey indicators still strong, any slowdown should be modest. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi confirms taper decision to come in October Despite reiterating the Governing Council’s concern about the strength of the euro exchange rate today, ECB President Draghi indicated that the Bank’s plan to taper asset purchases will be unveiled at... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy still faring well The third release confirmed that euro-zone GDP rose by a healthy 0.6% q/q in Q2, with the region’s largest five economies expanding by between 0.4% and 1.5% on the quarter. On the face of it, the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q2 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. While GDP growth might have slowed in Q3, it is likely to remain fairly strong by past... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) July’s fall in retail sales and the downward revision to August’s Composite PMI suggest that euro-zone GDP growth softened in Q3. But with consumer and business confidence still at very high levels... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone peripheral economies largely continued to improve their budget positions in July, with Ireland once again making the most progress. Portugal too is faring reasonably well. But Greece’s and... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise to keep taper plans on the back burner The appreciation of the single currency since the ECB’s last meeting has strengthened the case to delay the formal announcement of asset purchase tapering until October. But with growth strong and... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data broadly support the case for the ECB to taper its asset purchases next year, but the Bank seems unlikely to announce its plan until its October... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) The rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment in August left the index pointing to stronger GDP growth ahead and will do little to take the pressure off the euro exchange rate. But with... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) July’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with limited inflationary pressure in the region. Coupled with the renewed rise in the euro to above $1.20, this strengthens the case for the ECB... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy shrugs off stronger euro for now Although the euro’s strength does not appear to have had an adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far, this may not last. After all, unless the currency’s recent appreciation is reversed, it... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that economic growth maintained its pace in Q3. With the recovery healthy, we think that the ECB will proceed with tapering its asset... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Synchronised recovery makes the ECB’s job easier The euro-zone’s economic growth is unusually synchronised across the region. Economies in the core continue to do well, while previously-struggling countries like Italy and Portugal are growing again... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
