UK Economics Update Sufficient progress paves way for transition agreement The EU Council’s decision to sign off “sufficient progress” opens the door to agreeing a transition period, which would see the UK remain in the Customs Union and Single Market until 2021, early next... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Period of strong capital value growth nearing an end Against a backdrop of solid economic growth, the outlook for occupier demand and rental growth is encouraging. But with prime property yields close to finding a floor, and tighter monetary policy on... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Irish GDP (Q3) The narrowing of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in October revealed that the external sector had a poor start to Q4. But with the global economy in good health and world trade growing at a decent... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish ECB to normalise policy very slowly While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) October’s small rise in industrial production marked a soft start to Q4 but the surveys suggest that the sector will finish the year on a positive note. Meanwhile, employment data for Q3 showed that... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European Monetary Fund is no silver bullet The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. Timelier evidence suggests that the economy has performed well so far in Q4, setting... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Warm weather weighed on clothing sales and therefore overall retail sales in October, but November’s rise in consumer confidence to a 16-year high suggests that sales growth rebounded last month. And... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries have made further progress in reducing their deficits during 2017. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s rise in headline euro-zone consumer price inflation and the fall in the unemployment rate in October may offer some reassurance to the ECB as it prepares to reduce the pace of its asset... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
