Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with core inflation below the ECB’s near-2% target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s decline in euro-zone inflation to a five-month low does not change our view that the ECB will alter its forward guidance next week. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (May) May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) Despite softening in May, the EC’s business and consumer surveys suggest that eurozone economic growth picked up in Q2. But with inflation expectations falling back, there is little indication that... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data? The message from survey evidence that activity in the euro-zone has picked up substantially since the end of last year has yet to be fully reflected in the official data. Indeed, quarterly growth of 0... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations? Euro-zone construction sentiment is now back above pre-crisis norms. And with low borrowing costs set to continue supporting property prices and activity, prospects for the sector are the best in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB tighten prematurely again? The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro The euro’s recent appreciation against the US dollar appears to reflect better prospects for euro-zone growth and has occurred despite expectations that ECB monetary policy will remain very loose... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May) The strength of both the euro-zone Composite PMI and the German Ifo in May provide further evidence that the economic recovery gained pace in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will strong demand continue to lift euro-zone office rents? Strong employment growth in the euro-zone augurs well for office occupier demand. Coupled with limited net additions, we think euro-zone prime office rents will move higher in the years ahead. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone’s revival be sustained? While the recent pick-up in euro-zone growth has owed much to temporary factors, the economy now seems to be gaining its own momentum and we expect it to outperform consensus forecasts this year and... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market? The recovery in the labour market is unlikely to put significant upward pressure on wage growth. Accordingly, the ECB will be very cautious when it comes to tightening policy. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the euro-zone about to boost the global economy? While there are encouraging signs that the euro-zone is becoming less of a drag on the global economy, there are reasons not to expect a substantial boost from the region. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) The second estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery maintained a decent pace, and growth is set to pick up further. But with inflation pressures subdued, we doubt that the ECB will... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
