Europe Economics Weekly Key questions about the French election After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI added to evidence that the economy is faring very well, pointing to strong GDP growth of up to 0.7% per quarter. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still no hints of policy tightening The ECB is likely to stick to the script this month, with a weak outlook for underlying inflation justifying its plan to buy assets until at least the end of the year. The Bank will probably drop the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have euro-zone property yields hit their floor? Our upwardly revised forecasts for 10-year euro-zone government bond yields imply a sharper rise in prime property yields towards the end of our five-year forecast horizon. That said, the stronger... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in February but probably narrowed in Q1 as a whole. With higher energy prices explaining much of that narrowing, trade volumes may still have boosted GDP in Q1... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone set for healthy Q1 despite weak industry The strength of economic survey indicators in Q1 has not yet been reflected in either the retail sales or industrial production data. But construction appears to have boomed and car registrations... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.) February’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a weak Q1, but the slowdown should have been offset by stronger growth in other sectors. What’s more, the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in German industrial production and wider trade surplus help to reconcile the recent gap between the hard data and surveys, and imply that GDP rose sharply in Q1. But the French... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy going strong, but core inflation weak Survey data for March added to the evidence that euro-zone growth gained pace in the first quarter. Meanwhile, headline consumer price inflation fell in March and appears to have passed its peak... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q1. That said, high consumer confidence and firms’ strong employment intentions suggest that household spending growth won... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment and the rise in the manufacturing PMI in March supported other evidence that the economy is performing well. But February’s producer prices data confirmed... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year Last week brought more evidence that the euro-zone economy has continued to perform very well and we have decided to upgrade our forecasts for the region significantly. Indeed, inflation has been more... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
