Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI was almost entirely driven by a sharp drop in France, perhaps suggesting that the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests have had a serious economic effect. But even... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s growing caution raises chance of later rate hikes While the ECB has ended its net asset purchases, it plans to reinvest funds from maturing securities for a long time to come and has stressed that any future rate hikes will depend on a build-up of... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth has slowed, but recession risk small The euro-zone economy’s recent performance has been worse than we or the consensus expected. But for now at least, it seems to be a garden variety slowdown rather than something more worrying. The... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production provides some grounds for optimism that GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q4. But the big picture is that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMIs suggested that the weakness of GDP growth in Q3 was more than just a blip. But October’s rise in retail sales provides some comfort and we expect consumer spending... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling consumer confidence not as bad as it looks The recent fall in euro-zone consumer confidence has reflected a decline in optimism about the general economic outlook, which may well continue. But this need not imply that a slowdown in spending... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s modest decline in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it consistent with solid GDP growth which will encourage the ECB to end its asset purchases next month as... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No deal Brexit hit to euro-zone would be manageable Provided that it is reasonably orderly, a “no deal Brexit” would probably reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by 0.1-0.2% points next year, though the impact would be much larger for Ireland... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Autos likely to remain a drag on euro-zone equities We think that equities in the euro-zone will be caught in the crossfire of a stock market sell-off in the US next year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to fall by 14% in... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
