Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Marked slowdown in capital value growth With all-property rental values rising by a little under 0.5% q/q in Q1, it was further yield compression that once again drove capital value growth. But with yields declining by just 5bps, capital... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) While the euro-zone trade surplus widened in March, this reflected a drop in the value of imports rather than export strength. Subdued global demand growth and the recent appreciation of the euro... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will slow from here Despite the downward revision to Q1 euro-zone GDP, the 0.5% quarterly gain still got the year off to a solid start. But there are good reasons to expect growth to be slower in Q2 and beyond. And the... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prov.) While Q1’s 0.5% quarterly gain in euro-zone GDP provides a reasonably solid start to the year, there are good reasons to expect growth to slow in Q2 and beyond. 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s contraction means that industry looks likely to have accounted for about 0.2%-points of the euro-zone’s 0.6% q/q GDP growth rate in Q1. But the underlying trend in output is weak, and surveys... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US to regain momentum, euro-zone to slow The US economy looks set to regain some momentum in the second quarter after a weak performance in Q1 as the drags from previous dollar strength and the slump in oil prices continue to fade. But... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Full year general government figures for 2015 show that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although Portugal and Spain still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Strength of growth in Q1 unlikely to be sustained Euro-zone GDP rose by a healthy 0.6% in Q1, easily outpacing the expansions in the US and UK and following disappointingly slow growth in the second half of 2015. But the data look strong relative to... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s euro-zone retail sales data appear to confirm that strong consumer spending supported growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. Indeed, April’s Composite PMI points to a slight... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q1) & Flash CPI (Apr.) The euro-zone’s new earlier (“preliminary flash”) estimate of GDP confirmed the message from country data that the economy regained some pace in Q1 after the slowdown in H2 last year. But growth is... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone business and consumer confidence does not change the bigger picture that growth in the euro-zone appears to be slowing. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow . While the ECB has since expanded its stimulus measures, we doubt that this will boost money and lending growth... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
