Europe Economics Update Are ECB corporate bond purchases already a success? The prospect of ECB corporate bond purchases, which begin today, has pushed corporate bond spreads down and prompted a pick-up in issuance. However, there are several reasons to think that spreads... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should European markets be more worried about Brexit? Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) Today’s final estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start to the year, driven by household spending. But the economy is unlikely to expand as quickly throughout the rest of... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May.) April’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that strong consumer spending growth in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated in Q2, and thus that GDP growth will slow. Indeed, May’s final Composite PMI also... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Target2 imbalances highlight uneven effects of QE The recent increase in Target2 imbalances does not suggest that the euro-zone is set for another crisis on the scale of 2011/12. However, it does suggest that countries in the core might be... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds fire but more easing still likely The ECB is in wait and see mode while it assesses the effects of its latest policy measures, but President Draghi left the door wide open to further policy action. We continue to believe that the... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) There was some good news last month for public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery as Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt and the EC decided to be lenient with Portugal and Spain after both... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The latest figures on euro-zone inflation and unemployment maintained the picture of subdued price pressures across the region. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the full effects of the ECB’s expanded stimulus measures will not yet have been felt, we doubt that they will... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) The euro-zone Composite PMI edged down in May despite rises in Germany and France, suggesting that growth in the rest of the euro-zone lost momentum. And with new export orders falling to a 16-month... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up? Is the stock market in the US overvalued or undervalued relative to its counterpart in Europe? The answer largely depends on which metric is chosen and how earnings evolve. 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
