Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The small fall in April’s euro-zone PMI suggests that the weakening of the region’s activity surveys this year has been due to more than just concerns about overseas demand, which have eased recently... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi struck a dovish tone following the ECB’s April policy meeting and stressed that the Governing Council was prepared to offer more policy support if needed. But while we expect the... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi will respond to German politicians’ recent criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose policy at the meeting on 21st April by reiterating the Bank’s independence and stressing that more... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite February’s fall in industrial production, the sector looks likely to have had a fairly strong Q1. But survey evidence suggests that this is unlikely to be sustained. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data point to strong consumer spending growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. And the downward revision to March’s Composite PMI added to signs that... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment suggests that the labour market remains in reasonable health, but it is still too weak to generate any real inflationary pressure. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.) March’s falls in euro-zone business and consumer confidence support other evidence that the region’s slow recovery is losing pace. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that December’s interest rate cut by the ECB had only a small effect. While the Bank has since increased its stimulus, we doubt that this will boost money... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs, German Ifo & ZEW (Mar.) The euro-zone PMI and German Ifo and ZEW surveys for March suggest that the slowdown in activity seen at the start of the year has eased, but the surveys still point to only modest growth in Q1 as a... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s trade surplus set to shrink We do not think that the recent strengthening of the euro is the result of a change of tactics from the ECB, away from trying to manage the exchange rate towards attempting to boost domestic demand... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) & Final CPI (Feb.) January’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that export growth slowed again at the start of 2016, suggesting that the previous small boost from the weaker euro has faded. We expect the region’s trade... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
