Europe Commercial Property Update Will industrial property weather the slowdown? A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy reinforces our view that industrial rental growth will slow this year and next. With policy rates on hold, we don’t expect upward pressure on industrial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German stimulus no game changer for euro-zone With the euro-zone economy slowing and the ECB short of ammunition, there will be growing calls for a big fiscal stimulus from Germany. However, we suspect that the German government will fall short... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) Retail sales figures for December were no worse than expected, and upward revisions to the data for October and November show that sales actually rose by 0.6% in Q4 as a whole. However, the final PMIs... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Mfg PMIs (Jan.) The increase in underlying inflation in the euro-zone in January is a rare piece of good news for the ECB. However, core inflation remains a long way below the ECB’s near-2% target and, given the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Unemployment (Dec.) Q4’s GDP growth rate of 0.2% will do nothing to reassure policymakers about the outlook for this year. We think growth will be only around 1.0% in 2019, and even this would require a slight pick-up... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in euro-zone equities unlikely to last We think that the recent rally in euro-zone equities will run out of steam. Although a trade deal between the US and China could give a boost to global share prices, including in the euro-zone, we... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Auto sector cannot account for weak Q4 GDP growth Problems in the auto industry explain most of the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 last year. But in Q4, although car production remained weak, it did not fall further, and it will not have... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dovish change to ECB guidance likely soon Following today’s ECB press conference, we think that the Bank will soon change its forward guidance to make it clear that it won’t raise interest rates until 2020 at the earliest. We also suspect... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The further fall in the Composite PMI for the euro-zone in January will not prompt the ECB to change its statement this afternoon. But it will heighten concerns about the severity of the slowdown and... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone slowdown due to more than just exports The slowdown in the euro-zone economy last year was driven partly by a decline in export growth and partly by weakening household consumption growth. This year, we suspect that consumption growth will... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi’s successor likely to be more hawkish Whoever becomes the next ECB President is likely to be more “hawkish”, and perhaps less effective, than Mario Draghi. That may not matter if the economy recovers from its recent soft patch, allowing... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2018) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that consumers’ and firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to the evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
