Europe Economics Focus What inflation rate is the ECB really targeting? Despite its latest policy loosening, the ECB’s behaviour over recent years has been consistent with an inflation objective of closer to 1% than 2%. This has depressed economic growth and increased the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB about to launch the chopper? While the distribution of helicopter money in the euro-zone is not a likely near-term measure, the lesson of recent years is that seemingly unimaginable policies can become reality. And it may suit... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new TLTROs boost bank lending? The latest changes to its lending operations mean that the ECB will now pay commercial banks to lend to the wider economy. But we still suspect that they will be unwilling to take the associated risks... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s strong rise in euro-zone industrial production was probably just a blip. Survey evidence suggests that the sector remains too weak to prevent the region’s economic recovery from slowing this... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook The Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for rental growth in some markets, and also pushed down our near term forecasts for property yields. Yet in most markets, lower yields... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch The ECB can’t afford to disappoint again The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) January’s euro-zone retail sales data provided some relief that the consumer sector did not lose as much steam as had been feared around the turn of the year. But the outlook for the sector is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies improved their budgetary positions at the start of 2016. Further consolidation is likely this year but political pressures may... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) & Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) January’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And survey evidence suggests that the labour market recovery is starting to slow. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy is slowing. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) January’s euro-zone monetary data added to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union is slowing, putting further pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly at its... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How have euro-zone consumers spent their oil savings? Euro-zone consumers have spent a lot of their savings from falling oil prices on clothing and, to a lesser extent, furniture and electronics. This boost is unlikely to last and if oil prices rise... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
