Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy continued to grow strongly in early 2018, but that inflation expectations remain subdued. This supports our view that the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still setting the scene for cautious, gradual normalisation The minutes of the ECB’s January meeting indicated just how cautiously the Bank wants to communicate and carry out its monetary policy normalisation. The ECB looks set to revisit its forward guidance... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone’s trade imbalances are just in remission The peripheral euro-zone countries have improved their competitiveness and eliminated their big current account deficits. But we think that they will struggle to maintain this improvement. And at the... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side Luis de Guindos, who is set to replace Vítor Constâncio as the ECB’s Vice President this June, may well be less dovish than his predecessor. What’s more, his appointment makes it more likely that arch... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the euro-zone Composite PMI remained at a high level and consistent with continued healthy GDP growth in early 2018. This might encourage the ECB to signal before long... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor More markets looking overvalued Although there was little movement in government bond yields and equity dividend yields in Q4, further declines in property yields mean that valuations have generally worsened this quarter. Over 40%... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) While the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus was little changed in Q4, overall net trade seems to have boosted GDP growth. We expect trade to contribute positively to growth again this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q4) & Industrial Prod. (Dec.) An acceleration in industrial production growth was not enough to prevent a slight slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is bright. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Diverging fortunes for rental growth Investment activity across the euro-zone reached a new record in 2017. However, fourth quarter activity fell in annual terms for the first time since the financial crisis. Investor appetite for retail... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s support now looks set to last While US interest rate expectations for this year have risen into line with our own, this has not undermined the euro as we had anticipated. Instead, markets have focused on the strength of the euro... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Activity surveys strong as equities fall While equity markets in the euro-zone have recently declined alongside those in the US, activity surveys continue to paint a very healthy picture of the economy. Indeed, the euro-zone Composite PMI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales followed a sharp rise in November and the high level of consumer confidence suggests that sales growth should soon pick up. Meanwhile, the final PMI for... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
