Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s sharp decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI supported other evidence that the region’s recovery has slowed in Q1 and added to pressure on the ECB to provide further decisive policy support... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU deal soon should pave way for a Brexit referendum in June The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Strongest year for capital values since 2006 Office rental values recorded their strongest quarterly gain since 2011 in Q4. Yet at the all-property level, yield compression, rather than rental growth, proved to be the main driver of capital... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi’s criteria for further easing already met Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 Prov.) The fact that euro-zone GDP growth did not slow in Q4 last year provides little comfort in the current environment of global market turmoil and does not preclude the need for further decisive policy... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will market turmoil prompt a euro-zone recession? Several financial market indicators are warning of an impending euro-zone recession. For now, even we think that is too pessimistic. But it supports our non-consensus view that growth is set to slow... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s weak industrial production data from France and Italy showed that the sector is still struggling and add to the risk that euro-zone GDP growth slowed in Q4. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil price falls will depress inflation for some time yet Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone consumers have spent their oil windfalls The decline in oil prices and inflation has probably had a more positive impact on the euro-zone economy than expected as the region’s consumers have spent their windfalls. But as the oil boost fades... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
