ECB Watch Preparing for a December QE extension The ECB’s Governing Council is unlikely to unveil any policy changes at its forthcoming meeting on 20th October. But we expect it to prepare the ground for an extension of its Asset Purchase Programme... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production in August suggests that the sectorprovided a positive, albeit small, boost to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry isunlikely to be able to prevent the... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) There have been further signs of fiscal slippage in the peripheral economies this month. Germany is also planning a tax cut, but this does not mark a dramatic change in its fiscal stance. It intends... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s money and credit data suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a decent pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain well below the ECB’s target. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 20-month low implies that the already sluggish pace of expansion in the currency union lost further momentum at the end of the quarter. 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown Rising inflation may be less of a drag on the growth of euro-zone household spending than we had previously feared. But spending growth is still likely to slow, weakening a key support for overall... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Extension of “Juncker plan” would not be a game-changer The “Juncker plan” has done little to boost investment. Accordingly, an extension of the scheme, proposed by President Juncker this morning, is unlikely to raise the euro-zone’s growth prospects. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) The weakness of euro-zone industry in July suggests that industrial production will struggle to expand at all over Q3 and doesn’t bode well for GDP growth this quarter. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office rental growth hits post crisis high All-property euro-zone rental values increased by 0.9% q/q in Q2, up from 0.4% q/q in Q1, as office rents rose at the fastest quarterly rate since the financial crisis. At the same time, yields fell... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
