Europe Economics Update Risk to the euro-zone from the trade war is rising The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness to continue to weigh on equities The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is... 7th August 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jul.) July’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with continued weak GDP growth at the start of Q3. And the PMI surveys also confirmed that Italy and Germany remain the currency union’s weak spots. While... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) The jump in retail sales in June follows a fairly sharp contraction in May and feeble growth in April, and means that retail sales growth slowed in Q2 overall. With the boost from falling inflation... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Unemp. (June) & HICP (July) The raft of weak economic data published this morning strengthens the case for the ECB to announce a package of stimulus measures at its next meeting in September. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tiered ECB deposit rate would be a dovish signal If it is introduced (which is far from certain) a tiered deposit rate would reduce the cost of negative interest rates for banks, but it would do so by only a trivial amount. Its main purpose would be... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s euro-zone PMI survey points to continued weak GDP growth and declining price pressures, bolstering the case for the ECB to loosen policy at tomorrow’s meeting. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish. The euro-zone does not seem to be on the brink of recession, but continued slow growth should... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB spring a surprise next week? Next week, we think that the ECB will say that interest rates will remain “at present or lower” levels at least through the middle of next year, and that it “stands ready” to re-start QE. Hints at a... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro-zone economy turning a corner? The improvement in some of the recent economic data suggests that the risk of an imminent recession is low. But it does not suggest that the economy is about to rebound. We expect growth to remain... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production should allay concerns about the wider economy falling into recession, but it is still consistent with GDP growth slowing in the second quarter... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property yields be lower for longer? With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were weaker than expected and support our view that GDP growth in the bloc slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2. Looking ahead, lower inflation is likely to raise households’... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
