Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Economic activity still losing momentum Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in... 10th December 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data ahead of Lagarde’s ECB debut Data released this week have reinforced our view that economic growth is likely to slow in the coming quarters. Next week, Christine Lagarde’s debut press conference will be watched closely for any... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to loosen policy before policy review is complete With little chance of any policy action at the ECB meeting next Thursday, the focus will be on how President Lagarde performs in the press conference and on the scope and timetable for the planned... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Lower yields to support capital values We expect a further slowdown in euro-zone economic growth in 2020 to weigh on rental growth. However, with interest rates set to be cut next year and remain at this low level, there isn’t likely to be... 5th December 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, breakdown) & Retail Sales (Oct.) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy remained sluggish, with net trade continuing to weigh on growth. And we doubt that things will get any better in the coming... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Examining the case for euro-zone equities Our baseline assumption is that the returns in common currency from mid- and large-cap equities will be similar in the euro-zone and the US in 2020, after a decade in which those in the US have... 4th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMI is consistent with very anaemic GDP growth in Q4 and the national indices point to continued weakness in both Germany and Italy, while France and Spain remain relative... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s jump in inflation is unlikely to be the beginning of a sustained upward trend in price pressures. With employment growth slowing and slack in the labour market increasing, wage growth seems... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Nov.) Despite November’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the index suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained pace in Q4. 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy inaction will delay euro-zone recovery This week, Christine Lagarde’s first speech as ECB president and the account of October’s policy meeting suggested that monetary policy will be on autopilot for some time. There seems to be little... 22nd November 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) & German GDP (Q3) The small decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November confirms that the economy is still struggling. One silver lining is that the pace at which German industrial output is contracting appears... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Are negative policy rates hurting EZ bank lending? In our view, claims that the ECB’s negative deposit rate is weighing heavily on bank lending in the euro-zone are wide of the mark. In fact, we suspect that policymakers will cut the deposit rate even... 19th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
