Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in February but probably narrowed in Q1 as a whole. With higher energy prices explaining much of that narrowing, trade volumes may still have boosted GDP in Q1... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone set for healthy Q1 despite weak industry The strength of economic survey indicators in Q1 has not yet been reflected in either the retail sales or industrial production data. But construction appears to have boomed and car registrations... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & German ZEW (Apr.) February’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a weak Q1, but the slowdown should have been offset by stronger growth in other sectors. What’s more, the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in German industrial production and wider trade surplus help to reconcile the recent gap between the hard data and surveys, and imply that GDP rose sharply in Q1. But the French... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy going strong, but core inflation weak Survey data for March added to the evidence that euro-zone growth gained pace in the first quarter. Meanwhile, headline consumer price inflation fell in March and appears to have passed its peak... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q1. That said, high consumer confidence and firms’ strong employment intentions suggest that household spending growth won... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment and the rise in the manufacturing PMI in March supported other evidence that the economy is performing well. But February’s producer prices data confirmed... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to beat consensus this year Last week brought more evidence that the euro-zone economy has continued to perform very well and we have decided to upgrade our forecasts for the region significantly. Indeed, inflation has been more... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s sharp slowdown in euro-zone inflation was partly driven by temporary factors that will reverse in April, but the big picture is that inflation is now on a downward trend. So we expect the ECB... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise not a threat to the recovery The euro’s rise against the US dollar over the past few weeks has probably reflected speculation of ECB tapering, as well as perceptions of diminished political risk in the currency union. We doubt... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the euro-zone Composite PMI points to the strongest pace of GDP growth in two years in Q1, there are still fundamental reasons to expect growth to slow in 2017. As such, policymakers will not... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
