Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 Prel. Flash) & PPI (Mar.) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP supported the message from earlier national data that the recovery maintained a decent pace in Q1. However, economic growth is still putting little... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) General government figures for 2016 revealed that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although some countries still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile, timelier central... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.), Final Man. PMI (Apr.) March’s small fall in the level of euro-zone unemployment came as something of a disappointment and suggests that, despite the growing strength of the economy, wage growth will remain subdued and keep... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey provides more good news for ECB This week’s Bank Lending Survey brought more good news for the ECB. Lending conditions have continued to improve, and growth in the demand for credit points to a continued decent recovery in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation put it back in line with the ECB’s target, but the rise reflected the timing of Easter and we doubt that it will lead the Bank to alter its view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with subdued core inflation. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June Given the shift in Mr Draghi’s language at today’s press conference, we think that in June the ECB will remove the reference to “lower” interest rates from its forward guidance. While this would end... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish CPI (Apr.) April’s increases in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate rose back to the ECB’s target of close to 2%. But the increase partly reflected the timing of Easter... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that euro-zone growth accelerated further at the start of Q2. But with consumers’ inflation expectations falling back, we do not expect the ECB to signal... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival The opinion polls were right for once and a strong showing for centrist liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French election has raised hopes of growth-boosting labour market... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Key questions about the French election After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI added to evidence that the economy is faring very well, pointing to strong GDP growth of up to 0.7% per quarter. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still no hints of policy tightening The ECB is likely to stick to the script this month, with a weak outlook for underlying inflation justifying its plan to buy assets until at least the end of the year. The Bank will probably drop the... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have euro-zone property yields hit their floor? Our upwardly revised forecasts for 10-year euro-zone government bond yields imply a sharper rise in prime property yields towards the end of our five-year forecast horizon. That said, the stronger... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
