Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew in Q1 at a faster pace than previously indicated, despite a slowdown in consumer spending. And with activity surveys pointing to a pick-up in GDP growth in Q2, the euro-zone... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Retail sales made a subdued start to Q2, but May’s rise in consumer confidence to a 10-year high suggests that growth should pick. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the ECB “normalise” policy? We think that the ECB will taper its asset purchases to zero in the first six months of 2018 and begin raising interest rates in 2019. The euro-zone economy as a whole should continue to perform well... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (May) May’s final Composite PMI points to a pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2. And this strength is broad based. While growth has remained strongest in Germany and Spain, recoveries in France and Italy... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property cycle a step closer to turning Prime euro-zone property yields still have scope to fall over the next 18 months. However, with a stronger outlook for the euro-zone economy, we have increased our forecasts for government bond yields... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Consumer slowdown won’t throw recovery off track Although the euro-zone’s consumer sector currently appears to be in good shape, the combination of higher inflation compared to last year and continued weak wage growth points to annual household... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) The latest fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral economies, with the largest countries faring best. There was also good news for Portugal, which is no longer deemed to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with core inflation below the ECB’s near-2% target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s decline in euro-zone inflation to a five-month low does not change our view that the ECB will alter its forward guidance next week. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (May) May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) Despite softening in May, the EC’s business and consumer surveys suggest that eurozone economic growth picked up in Q2. But with inflation expectations falling back, there is little indication that... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data? The message from survey evidence that activity in the euro-zone has picked up substantially since the end of last year has yet to be fully reflected in the official data. Indeed, quarterly growth of 0... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the recovery in construction built on strong foundations? Euro-zone construction sentiment is now back above pre-crisis norms. And with low borrowing costs set to continue supporting property prices and activity, prospects for the sector are the best in... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
