Europe Chart Pack Past the worst, but recovery slow and bumpy Governments have taken their first steps towards lifting the restrictions which caused the economy to collapse in the past few weeks. As a result, high frequency indicators show some people returning... 6th May 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales plummeted in March and the PMIs fell to new record lows in April. Output should pick up again now that containment measures are being lifted, but it will remain very low for a... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German offices likely to outperform rest of euro-zone As Germany cautiously eases its lockdown, despite the significant hit to economic activity, the tight supply picture should help support prime office rents across the four main cities this year. 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB dragging feet over sovereign support The ECB’s failure to step up its asset purchase programmes at today’s monetary policy meeting will leave investors with nagging doubts about its commitment to underwrite government borrowing during... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), HICP (Apr.), Unemp. (Mar.) The blizzard of depressing economic data released this morning confirms that the euro-zone economy was in freefall at the end of March, with GDP dropping by a record amount throughout the region. This... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How quickly will euro-zone activity return to normal? Although restrictions are set to be lifted in the coming weeks, economic activity in the euro-zone will remain significantly below pre-virus levels for a long period. Consumers are likely to be wary... 29th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) and Euro-zone Bank Lending (Mar.) The largest-ever slump in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in April comes as no surprise but, along with the 3.9% q/q fall in Belgian GDP in Q1, it underlines the depth of the euro-zone’s recession... 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2020) The Bank Lending Survey highlights the fact that demand has fallen much further in Italy and Spain than elsewhere. But it also suggests that loan guarantees and the ECB’s cheap loans to banks are... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown April the nadir, but slow recovery ahead Following the further slump in the April surveys, the lifting of some restrictions in a number of member states over the past week or so has provided a glimmer of hope that April might mark the bottom... 24th April 2020 · 9 mins read
ECB Watch ECB set to ramp up asset purchases The ECB has ramped up its asset purchases to a record pace, but this still doesn’t look like enough. We think it will expand the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, and may explore extra measures... 23rd April 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMIs are shockingly bad and suggest that economic activity has all but ground to a halt. Some virus containment measures are now being lifted, but output will be very weak for many more months... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The slump in the EC euro-zone consumer confidence index in April was another record decline. However, the index excludes data for Italy and almost certainly understates the true extent of the... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will need to increase its bond purchases again The ECB’s record pace of asset purchases is proving insufficient to bring bond spreads down. We think that it will need to step up the pace of purchases further, as well as expand the overall size of... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Divided politicians to leave ball in ECB’s court Proposals for a major, joint fiscal initiative are under discussion again ahead of tomorrow’s EU leaders’ meeting. But the gulf between those in favour and against looks too large to bridge. As a... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
