Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained strong in September and point to a continued healthy pace of growth. But they remain consistent with only limited inflationary pressure, suggesting that the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery to withstand political concerns Politics are in focus yet again, with the German and Austrian elections revealing reduced support for mainstream parties and the push for Catalan independence creating much uncertainty. But business... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) Despite declining in October, the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economic recovery continued at a healthy pace at the start of Q4. But growth is being driven mainly by the core economies... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How does the impact of e-commerce vary in Europe? E-commerce is taking an increasing share of total retail sales across Europe, but its reach and impact in the short-to-medium-term will vary by country and across different retailer types. 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish and Italian “separatists” not yet an economic worry Madrid’s plan to impose direct rule in Catalonia is likely to be met by protests, which would cause shortterm disruption. The risk of a more serious economic deterioration is growing, but as things... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Tighter policy won’t derail global recovery The steady economic expansion in advanced economies is set to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. Although most economies are approaching... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in August adds to the evidence that the region’s economy performed well in Q3. And the outlook for exports is bright. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austrian populists to frustrate EU integration plans The Austrian general election taking place this Sunday is likely to result in a far-right, populist party entering government. While this probably won’t have significant domestic economic... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector had a strong Q3, contributing to the continued healthy economic recovery. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Catalan political crisis still far from an economic one The Catalan Government could achieve independence without Spain’s consent if a critical mass of people and firms were on board. This would be negative for the rest of Spain. Spain’s government’s debt... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals for Q3 The latest indicators have given mixed signals about the euro-zone economy in Q3. Somewhat ironically, the “hard” data available so far have been rather soft. Industrial production rose by just 0.1%... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q3. But September’s Composite PMI implies that overall GDP growth remained fairly strong. 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will other regions push for independence? After Catalonia’s vote, it seems unlikely that other Spanish regions will soon push for independence. But in Italy, later this month two regions are set to hold referendums aimed at achieving greater... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy’s budget deficit has widened and its Government plans to... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
