Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Production (Oct.) & Employment (Q3) October’s small rise in industrial production marked a soft start to Q4 but the surveys suggest that the sector will finish the year on a positive note. Meanwhile, employment data for Q3 showed that... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European Monetary Fund is no silver bullet The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Underlying inflationary pressures remain uneven Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. Timelier evidence suggests that the economy has performed well so far in Q4, setting... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) Warm weather weighed on clothing sales and therefore overall retail sales in October, but November’s rise in consumer confidence to a 16-year high suggests that sales growth rebounded last month. And... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries have made further progress in reducing their deficits during 2017. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) November’s rise in headline euro-zone consumer price inflation and the fall in the unemployment rate in October may offer some reassurance to the ECB as it prepares to reduce the pace of its asset... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone’s economic upturn has gained more pace, but inflation expectations are rising only slowly. This supports the ECB’s very gradual... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Gradually scaling back support despite low inflation Despite the fact that core inflation in advanced economies has generally remained very low, policymakers are committed to reducing policy support and/or raising interest rates next year. Fed officials... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone lending growth strengthened in October, and with the ECB set to normalise monetary policy only very slowly, we think that bank lending will continue to support the economic recovery. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softly, softly...the ECB is tweaking its forward guidance Our reading of the minutes of the ECB’s October policy meeting is that the Bank has begun to prepare the ground for an end to its asset purchases. Before long, the ECB seems set to stop promising to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Investors cautious about periphery markets Investment across the euro-zone in Q3 reached a record for a third quarter, supported by increasing amounts of foreign capital. However, with the prime all-property yield falling by just 5bps, the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
