US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least... 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Growing risk of a second wave The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data... 6th August 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July) Euro-zone retail sales reached their pre-crisis level in June and July’s final PMIs confirmed that the broader recovery continued at the start of Q3. But other parts of the economy won’t have... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Examining the outlook for key equity indices in the euro-zone We suspect that MSCI’s index of German equities will stop outperforming its indices of equities in other major euro-zone countries in the coming months, even if the economy holds up better in Germany... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest data highlight divergence across the euro-zone The economic data published this week confirm that euro-zone member states have had very different experiences of the virus so far. This is likely to continue, with Germany outperforming and Spain... 31st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), HICP (Jul.) There are few silver linings in the data published today, which confirmed the massive slump in Q2. Parts of the economy have sprung back to life since April, but the damage already done plus the... 31st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) & Euro-zone Unemployment (June) The further increase in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for July echoes the message from other surveys that the recovery continued at the start of Q3. But it tells us little about how far... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Policy measures from governments and the ECB to keep banks lending during lockdowns appear to have been successful, but as we have argued was likely to happen, loan growth is now slowing. Consumers’... 27th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Joint rally in euro & BTPs may not be over yet Over the past few months, the euro and the BTP-Bund spread have moved closely together, with the euro strengthening as the BTP-Bund spread narrowed and vice versa. We think that this pattern will... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) The sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. But we suspect that activity will remain below... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery Fund another positive step The final agreement on the Recovery Fund was a compromise reached after four days and nights of acrimonious negotiations and is less generous than first proposed. Nonetheless, it marks a historic step... 21st July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May), Spain Ind. Prod. (May) Euro-zone retail sales rebounded sharply in May, but spending will still have collapsed in Q2 as other types of spending remained weak. Meanwhile, industrial production is recovering more slowly. 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The sharp increases in the euro-zone PMIs in June suggest that activity is bouncing back quite quickly, but remains far lower than before the crisis. The PMIs also point to continued declines in... 3rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) The trivial rise in unemployment in the euro-zone reflects the success of short-time working schemes in protecting jobs but also an increase in “inactivity” as people have been unable to look for work... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The increase in euro-zone headline inflation in June was entirely due to higher energy inflation, while the core rate edged down and looks likely to fall further over the rest of the year. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
