Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and lending data add to the evidence that economic growth has peaked. But with households’ and firms’ demand for loans still strong, and ECB policy set to remain accommodative... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB confident about inflation despite slower growth The ECB opted to leave its policy and guidance unchanged today, expressing caution about the softer tone of economic data. But it argued that growth was merely moderating from a strong pace and... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worries about Germany are overdone Developments in Germany this week have increased concerns that the euro-zone’s growth engine is really starting to sputter. But we think that some of these concerns are overdone. After all, recent... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone’s upturn screeching to a halt? The most recent official euro-zone data have been weak and the latest business surveys are consistent in their message that the economic expansion has lost momentum. A sanguine view of this is that... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has euro-zone growth peaked? The latest survey indicators all suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone has peaked. That said, the economic recovery looks set to continue at a healthy pace over the next few years. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Weak inflation supports patient, prudent approach With the economy still performing well and the euro off the boil, we expect the ECB to remove the loosening bias from its forward guidance when it meets on 8th March. But the persistent weakness of... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate held steady in January and the number of unemployed people only edged down, surveys suggest that the labour market recovery should regain momentum. But the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in headline inflation does not change our view that the ECB will drop the easing bias from its forward guidance at its meeting on 8th March. But with core inflation still weak and... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy continued to grow strongly in early 2018, but that inflation expectations remain subdued. This supports our view that the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still setting the scene for cautious, gradual normalisation The minutes of the ECB’s January meeting indicated just how cautiously the Bank wants to communicate and carry out its monetary policy normalisation. The ECB looks set to revisit its forward guidance... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone’s trade imbalances are just in remission The peripheral euro-zone countries have improved their competitiveness and eliminated their big current account deficits. But we think that they will struggle to maintain this improvement. And at the... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Make-up of ECB Council shifting to the hawkish side Luis de Guindos, who is set to replace Vítor Constâncio as the ECB’s Vice President this June, may well be less dovish than his predecessor. What’s more, his appointment makes it more likely that arch... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) Despite falling in February, the euro-zone Composite PMI remained at a high level and consistent with continued healthy GDP growth in early 2018. This might encourage the ECB to signal before long... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor More markets looking overvalued Although there was little movement in government bond yields and equity dividend yields in Q4, further declines in property yields mean that valuations have generally worsened this quarter. Over 40%... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
