Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone PMI comes as something of a disappointment but the index is still consistent with a decent pace of GDP growth at the start of Q3. Accordingly, the ECB is likely to push... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive monthly data, Japan deal not a game-changer Recent euro-zone data releases have generally been encouraging, supporting our view that GDP growth picked up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the EU-Japan trade deal, signed this week, is... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks still in the minority In an otherwise quiet week, the main economic news was the publication of the minutes of June’s ECB meeting. They showed that members of the Governing Council “widely agreed” to update their forward... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production offered welcome reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 did not mark the start of a downward trend. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) May’s euro-zone retail sales data were a little weaker than expected, but still imply that the consumer sector fared better in Q2 than in Q1. And looking ahead, we think that household spending will... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is euro-zone inflation set to take off? Germany is the only major euro-zone economy where underlying inflation looks set to rise meaningfully in the next year or so. But even there, inflation is likely to remain lower than in major... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Manuf. PMI (Jun.) May’s unemployment data revealed that the steady recovery in the euro-zone labour market had continued despite signs of a slowdown in the wider economy. But with wage growth remaining subdued, the ECB... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s inflation data are unlikely to change the ECB’s assessment of the outlook for monetary policy. We maintain our long-held view that the Bank will leave its interest rates unchanged until... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) After falling only marginally in June, the EC’s measure of economic sentiment provides further evidence that the softness in activity recorded in Q1 does not mark the start of a sharp downturn. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB raise its interest rates in tandem? While most forecasters now agree with our long-held view that the first ECB rate hike will come in September 2019, there is no clear consensus over which rate will rise first or why. In this Update... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the ECB affect CEE? The ECB’s ‘tapering’ of its asset purchases later this year and probable rate hikes in 2019 are unlikely to have much economic or financial market impact in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). But, at... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
