Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that spending growth failed to gain pace in Q3, but there are good reasons to think that sales volumes will accelerate as inflation falls in the months... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) The further decline in core inflation in September was a little disappointing and, against a backdrop of slower economic growth, will ensure that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) September’s fall in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence that economic growth is slowing. This slowdown isn’t sharp enough to deter the ECB from ending its asset... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The softening of the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to evidence that the region’s economy has lost some momentum after 2017’s very strong expansion. But as the index is still consistent... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone industrial slowdown to weigh on growth Euro-zone industrial production has slowed surprisingly sharply this year as producers have suffered from an investment-led global slowdown and an appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth may play stronger role in ECB policy The latest comments from the ECB’s Benoît Coeuré suggest that future guidance about the pace of policy tightening might hinge on developments in wage growth. In our view, this would be a positive... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB focused on wage growth, not industrial slowdown Despite the recent softening of the economic data, on Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a positive tone on the outlook for GDP growth and inflation. And the Q2 labour cost data, published... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Goods Trade (Jul.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q2 adds to signs that inflationary pressures in the region are building. This will encourage the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy. But... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s plans unaffected by signs of slowdown The ECB today confirmed its intention to normalise policy gradually, expressing very little concern about signs of an economic slowdown. Given growing risks and economic uncertainty, the first... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s euro-zone industrial production data marked a very weak start to Q3 and support the ECB’s cautious approach to policy normalisation. 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Export growth slowdown looks set to persist After providing a big boost to GDP growth last year, net exports were a drag on growth in the first half of 2018. This does not look like a temporary response to heightened trade tensions. Instead, it... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q2 GDP confirmed that net trade was a drag on growth for the second consecutive quarter. But with domestic demand strong and the timelier survey evidence encouraging... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
