Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The broad-based slump in industrial production in November underlines how serious the malaise is in Europe’s industrial sector. While the euro-zone may have eked out a small increase in GDP in Q4, it... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier risks A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB losing its optimism The account of the ECB’s last meeting confirms that the Governing Council was less confident about the economic outlook, even in mid-December. While policy loosening is very unlikely for now, the... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the euro-zone We are revising our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone and now expect GDP to increase by only 1% this year and a bit less in 2020. Core inflation is also likely to be around 1% this year... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structurally lower interest rates support valuations With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could a no deal Brexit bring upside to the euro-zone? A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property yields on hold in 2019 The euro-zone economy has weakened sharply in 2018. With growth unlikely to regain lost momentum, not only has the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, but the possibility of the ECB delaying... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone corporate credit spreads likely to rise further Although corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone have already risen a long way, we think that they will continue to increase as concerns about growth in the region intensify. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys highlight particular weakness of Italy While business surveys have weakened throughout the euro-zone, they imply quite different things for growth in each economy. The Spanish surveys still bode well. But the German and French indicators... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields to plateau With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI was almost entirely driven by a sharp drop in France, perhaps suggesting that the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests have had a serious economic effect. But even... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s growing caution raises chance of later rate hikes While the ECB has ended its net asset purchases, it plans to reinvest funds from maturing securities for a long time to come and has stressed that any future rate hikes will depend on a build-up of... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth has slowed, but recession risk small The euro-zone economy’s recent performance has been worse than we or the consensus expected. But for now at least, it seems to be a garden variety slowdown rather than something more worrying. The... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
