ECB Watch Not quite on autopilot, but change of course unlikely Despite mixed news from the economy and growing risks to the outlook, we expect the ECB to reiterate that asset purchases are set to end in December and that interest rates will probably rise... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) July’s euro-zone retail sales data imply that the sector had a slow start to Q3, but the timelier indicators are more encouraging. And the message from August’s PMI surveys was positive for the euro... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the low level of uncertainty in the euro-zone last? Uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy in the euro-zone is unusually low. While it is unlikely to return to the levels seen during the financial crisis or euro-zone debt... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Aug.) Although the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment fell again in August, it remains at a high level and consistent with fairly strong growth. But underlying price pressures are building very... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s small increase in the euro-zone PMI suggests that the region’s economy is continuing to perform well in Q3, which will reassure the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Little movement in office & retail yields The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB QE to remain an important policy tool Even after Q2’s disappointing euro-zone GDP data, we still think that the ECB is unlikely to extend its net asset purchases into next year. But it might vary the reinvestment of funds from its huge... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
