Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) While the euro-zone’s nominal goods trade surplus was little changed in Q4, overall net trade seems to have boosted GDP growth. We expect trade to contribute positively to growth again this year. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q4) & Industrial Prod. (Dec.) An acceleration in industrial production growth was not enough to prevent a slight slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is bright. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Diverging fortunes for rental growth Investment activity across the euro-zone reached a new record in 2017. However, fourth quarter activity fell in annual terms for the first time since the financial crisis. Investor appetite for retail... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s support now looks set to last While US interest rate expectations for this year have risen into line with our own, this has not undermined the euro as we had anticipated. Instead, markets have focused on the strength of the euro... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Activity surveys strong as equities fall While equity markets in the euro-zone have recently declined alongside those in the US, activity surveys continue to paint a very healthy picture of the economy. Indeed, the euro-zone Composite PMI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales followed a sharp rise in November and the high level of consumer confidence suggests that sales growth should soon pick up. Meanwhile, the final PMI for... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation largely reflected energy effects, so won’t be a major concern to the ECB. But December’s labour market data emphasise that there is still slack in the labour... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4, prelim. flash) & EC Survey (Jan.) Euro-zone GDP growth continued at a healthy pace in Q4 and, while the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in January, it continues to point to a pick-up in growth to come. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Patient ECB to move more slowly than markets think The ECB did not alter its forward guidance today, stressing that it will exercise patience and persistence when normalising policy and voicing concern about the strong euro. The currency’s further... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s jump in the euro-zone Composite PMI marked an exceptionally strong start to 2018. But while the data appear to strengthen the case for the ECB to “revisit” its forward guidance early this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should we worry about the “Draghi put”? The ECB has effectively introduced a “put” option on peripheral bonds, pushing yields and spreads down to record lows. Given recent fiscal progress and the likelihood that the ECB normalises policy... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does optimism about Brexit explain the pound’s rise? With the rise in the pound to its highest level against the US dollar since the eve of the EU referendum not appearing to be justified by relative interest rate expectations, some have argued that it... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
