Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is growing very strongly and we doubt that political uncertainty in Germany will change that. 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Buoyant Germany brightens euro-zone prospects Data this week confirmed that the euro-zone had a very good Q3, with a 0.6% rise in quarterly GDP pushing the annual growth rate up to 2.5% – the highest since early 2011. This was stronger than the 2... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in September adds to the evidence that net exports boosted GDP in Q3. And despite the appreciation of the euro this year, the outlook for exports is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) The flash estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy is in very good health. Admittedly, industrial production fell in September and the renewed rise in the euro exchange rate is a... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Softer services activity is no cause for alarm The latest euro-zone data have brought signs of a slowdown in activity in the services sector compared to that in manufacturing. But we suspect that the slowdown in services will be modest. After all... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Youth unemployment still a drag on potential growth The euro-zone’s youth unemployment rate remains worryingly high. To address this issue, this week’s Eurogroup meeting focused on plans to raise educational attainment, which is a very good place to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Although retail sales rose in September, the increase was not sufficient for the sector to match Q2’s performance in Q3. This suggests that total household spending was behind the slowdown in... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do ECB bond re-investments mean for yields? Data released by the ECB today imply that a significant volume of its German Bunds will mature next year, which the Bank will re-invest in German assets. But we don’t think that re-investments will... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) The final estimate of October’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy made a strong start to Q4. But there are still only tentative signs that inflationary pressures are building. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q3) & CPI (Oct.) The euro-zone economy posted a stronger-than-expected 0.6% quarterly expansion in Q3, but October’s CPI data will have reinforced the ECB’s judgement that its inflation goal is not yet in sight. 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Catalonia impasse is not a new euro-zone crisis We think that financial markets are right to take a relaxed view of the constitutional crisis in Catalonia. The economic fallout for Spain itself should be small, and the risks to the euro-zone are... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment suggests that political uncertainty has had little effect on the economy. While the available hard data imply that euro-zone GDP... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First rate rise a distant prospect as ECB extends QE While the ECB’s announcement that its asset purchase programme will now run until September 2018 and at a slower pace from January was largely in line with consensus forecast, its decision to keep the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
