Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Recent fiscal data suggest that most of the euro-zone’s peripheral countries are continuing to improve their budgetary positions. But Italy’s budget deficit has widened and its Government plans to... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Economic Sentiment (Sep.) The rise in the EC’s measure of euro-zone economic sentiment in September suggests that the eurozone’s economic recovery will continue at a decent pace. Along with the pick-up in consumer inflation... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will Germany’s election mean for the economy? The German election taking place on Sunday is not expected to have a significant impact on the economy. But the composition of the next coalition – which is likely to be either another grand coalition... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the recovery has regained momentum after a brief summer lull. While this will embolden policymakers, as inflation is set to rise only... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How could tighter ECB policy affect property yields? Tighter monetary policy in the UK, US and euro-zone in the next couple of years will undoubtedly cause risk-free rates to rise. However, given that property’s yield spread against risk-free rates is... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Portuguese bond yields be sustained? Portugal’s economic recovery is strengthening, while it has also made progress with recapitalising its banks and strengthening its fiscal position. This is reflected in the decline in government bond... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB taper affect corporate bond yields? We think that corporate bond yields will rise only gradually as the ECB tapers its asset purchases next year. After all, the economy looks set to continue performing well. And the Bank is likely to... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone moving closer to fiscal union? European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week gave his support to the creation of a European Monetary Fund and a euro-zone “budget line”. Eventually, these would result in slightly... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would be a dovish ECB taper? Given upward pressure on the single currency, we now see the ECB tapering its asset purchases over nine months instead of six next year. We still expect it to announce the full programme in advance... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) Despite July’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production, growth in the sector will probably slow in Q3. But with more timely survey indicators still strong, any slowdown should be modest. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook to keep ECB cautious The ECB’s new forecasts show that it expects inflation of just 1.2% next year and 1.5% in 2018. As the economy is performing well and core inflation has picked up recently, the Bank should still feel... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi confirms taper decision to come in October Despite reiterating the Governing Council’s concern about the strength of the euro exchange rate today, ECB President Draghi indicated that the Bank’s plan to taper asset purchases will be unveiled at... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy still faring well The third release confirmed that euro-zone GDP rose by a healthy 0.6% q/q in Q2, with the region’s largest five economies expanding by between 0.4% and 1.5% on the quarter. On the face of it, the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q2 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. While GDP growth might have slowed in Q3, it is likely to remain fairly strong by past... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
