Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Final Manuf. PMI (Jun.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged in May, survey indicators point to strong employment gains ahead. Nevertheless, the high degree of slack in some countries suggests that it will be... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields still over a year away from a floor Early indications suggest that prime yields fell again in Q2, which is likely to make property valuations look even more stretched. While this may increase the perception that yields cannot fall... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data revealed a mixed performance by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries, with Ireland faring particularly well. Meanwhile, Greece reached a deal with its creditors but, in the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jun.) June’s EC business and consumer surveys point to a sharp acceleration of euro-zone growth, which will increase speculation about ECB asset purchase tapering to come and add to upward pressure on the... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone money and credit data point to continued steady economic growth. But problems in Italian banks have seen lending there continue to contract. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing As official negotiations about Britain’s exit from the European Union began this week, the remaining member states appeared to be in a robust position. The euro-zone economy, in particular, is still... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Although the euro-zone Composite PMI fell in June, it still suggests that the economic recovery continued at a healthy pace in Q2. But the small falls in the survey’s forward-looking components... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support The latest labour market data paint a positive picture of employment conditions in the euro-zone. Indeed, in Q1 the level of euro-zone employment finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak. What’s more... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed a touch in April, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. We think that net trade will provide a small boost to GDP growth in 2017. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone? The UK election is unlikely to have major adverse near-term effects on the euro-zone as damage to UK demand from political uncertainty may be offset by looser fiscal policy. A softer Brexit could... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Apr.) & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone industry began Q2 on a positive note with a healthy rise in production in April and surveys point to an acceleration to come. Meanwhile, the region’s labour market recovery continued, with... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
