Europe Economic Outlook Slump puts new strains on currency union The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and... 21st April 2020 · 29 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB might need a bigger bazooka The ECB is now buying assets at a record pace. But it is still struggling to keep a lid on bond yields, so there is a good chance that it has to step up its purchases even further. Meanwhile, new... 17th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup agrees on lowest common denominator The Eurogroup’s agreement on €540bn, or 4.5% of GDP, of support for responses to the coronavirus crisis falls a long way short of the large-scale joint fiscal boost which many euro-zone governments... 10th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily ECB more important than Eurogroup for E-Z bond yields The overall small market reaction to yesterday’s inconclusive Eurogroup meeting supports our view that ECB policy, rather than the outlook for public finances, will be the main driver of euro-zone... 8th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Deepest downturn since WW2 The euro-zone is experiencing an unprecedented collapse in economic activity. We suspect that GDP will be roughly 25% below its pre-crisis level during the lockdowns, with the scale of devastation... 6th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Construction PMIs (Mar.) March’s construction PMIs add to the evidence that activity across the euro-zone has taken a big hit, while Italy’s stricter virus containment measures have had a catastrophic effect on output. 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone leaders argue as economy collapses Data this week provided yet more evidence that the lockdowns in place across the euro-zone have caused economic activity to collapse, forcing firms to lay off millions of workers across the region at... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The PMIs show that activity in Italy and Spain plummeted even before the authorities in both countries shut down all non-essential businesses. Euro-zone GDP is almost certain to fall at a record pace... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update GDP to drop by 25% during lockdowns The imposition of strict social distancing controls across the continent means that economic activity in the euro-zone is likely to slump even further than we had assumed two weeks ago. For the... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will short-time work schemes save euro-zone jobs? Euro-zone unemployment will rise sharply in the coming months but short-time working schemes will help to prevent it from skyrocketing. While this will incur significant fiscal costs, the support to... 2nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB likely to drive peripheral spreads lower this year We forecast that the credit spreads of euro-zone peripheral bonds will fall back further this year and remain low in 2021 thanks to unwavering support from the ECB. But public finances will be... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) & Ger. Unemp. (Mar.) The inflation rate in the euro-zone took a leg down in March, largely due to the slump in oil prices. With the economy taking on the verge of an unprecedented nose-dive, we expect headline inflation... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Business surveys under-estimating the slump in GDP The business surveys for March point to declines in activity at least as deep as during the global financial crisis. None of them will be perfect guides to GDP though. If anything, the economy seems... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) On the face of it, March’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is not as downbeat as some of the other surveys. But we think that it understates the drop in activity, and worse is likely to come in... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB steps up, EU leaders at loggerheads Evidence is mounting that the slump in euro-zone GDP will be even steeper than the 15% drop that we had anticipated. This will put huge pressure on the public finances. The ECB has at least taken the... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation set to turn negative The precipitous fall in oil prices and virus-related plunge in demand is likely to push euro-zone inflation to a record low of -1% in the summer. While the risk of deflation becoming entrenched seems... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
