Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI leaves it still consistent with fairly strong growth. While the survey’s price indices also edged down, this seems unlikely to deter the ECB from tapering... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB react to the euro’s rise? The renewed rise in the euro since yesterday’s ECB press conference may increase speculation that the Bank will have to change tack. But we doubt that it will be too worried about the currency at... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB taper announcement likely in October Today’s ECB press conference made us more confident that tapering will come next year. An announcement of the policy now seems most likely to come in October, rather than at the next meeting in... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) In contrast to the latest business surveys, the ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey provided some evidence that the economic recovery might slow. However, with demand for credit still increasing, and banks... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production left it at its highest level since September 2008 and bodes very well for GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could households withstand higher interest rates? Household debt has remained elevated in the euro-zone as a whole, but there has been significant deleveraging in the countries that needed it most. Given positive trends in the labour market, we... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves unlikely to prompt ECB to delay QE tapering The euro’s rise has not yet been sharp enough to cause a significant tightening of monetary conditions and we doubt that it will dissuade the ECB from tapering QE next year. But a further appreciation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (Jun.) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales suggests that household spending growth picked up in Q2. And the final euro-zone Composite PMI for June implies that the wider economy also had a strong second... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
