Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that GDP growth should edge up in Q4, implying that political uncertainty has yet to take a toll on the economy. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economic recovery maintained its pace in Q3. However, we think that growth will slow over the coming quarters. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) Despite September’s fall in euro-zone industrial production, industry probably made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry is unlikely to prevent overall economic growth from... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3 The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) As the European Commission (EC) undertakes its annual review of euro-zone member states’ budget submissions, yet more signs of fiscal slippage emerged in the South. Finances in Spain and Portugal... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & German New Orders (Sep.) The fading boost to consumers’ spending power from lower energy prices may bebehind September’s fall in euro-zone retail sales. As we have warned for sometime, consumer spending growth is set to... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) September’s euro-zone unemployment data suggest that, while the labour market is still strengthening, it is doing so at a slow pace. And forward-looking indicators suggest that the labour market... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 Prel. Flash) & CPI (Oct.) The preliminary flash estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP supports the message from earlier country data that the pace of growth remains fairly slow. So it is no surprise that October’s inflation data show... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports the message from the PMI that euro-zone growth accelerated towards the end of the year, albeit with continued divergence across... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone money and credit data continued the positive trend of recentmonths, consistent with a further steady expansion of the economy. Nevertheless,the data suggest that inflation will... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a ten-month high suggests that GDP growth may have picked up at the start of Q4. Nevertheless, there is a concerning divergence in conditions between the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals December QE extension President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus rose in August, but it probably fell over Q3 as a whole. Looking ahead, we think that the trade surplus will narrow further this year as global demand growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
