Are the euro-zone surveys too optimistic?

The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were probably too upbeat and the hard data too gloomy, it now seems likely that the region’s recovery failed to gain any momentum in Q4.

Furthermore, we see little cause for optimism about 2016, as the poor underlying health of both the consumer and the industrial sectors will prevent a renewed acceleration. As a result, we expect growth to slow from around 1.5% in 2015 to 1.2% this year.