Can we believe the ECB this time?

We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and colleagues to follow through on their latest dovish signals at their next meeting in March.

Mr Draghi’s hints were very strong and previous divisions on the Governing Council appear to have diminished. Most importantly though, the news on the economy is likely to force the ECB to deliver this time. We have pencilled in both another 10bp cut in the deposit rate and an acceleration in the ECB’s monthly asset purchases.