Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s dance with the IMF, restrictions looming in SA The confirmation this week that Zambia requested an IMF funding program is a positive step, which is likely to improve the chances of a wider debt restructuring deal with external creditors. Meanwhile... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: fiscal tightening can’t be delayed forever Victory for Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana’s presidential election this week increases the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the near term, which would support the economic recovery. But the precarious state... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African state of COVID-affairs, cocoa wars South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech to the nation last night suggests that, for now at least, the government is continuing to prioritise the economy over battling a second wave of COVID... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update COVID-19 vaccines and the implications for Africa The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be much slower in Africa than in many other parts of the world and the “vaccine bounce” in domestic economic activity will probably also be... 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack “Vaccine boost” faces hurdles Encouraging news about highly effective coronavirus vaccine trials has brightened Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook. However, the region is facing higher barriers compared to many other parts of... 27th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flip-flops, policymakers in financing pickle Mixed signals from recent policy announcements in Nigeria raise doubts about the administration’s commitment to pro-business reforms, especially in relation to the currency. At least the government... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy suffering two-speed recovery Nigeria’s Q3 GDP data showed that ongoing weakness in the oil sector was more than offset by a rebound in the non-oil economy and we expect this two-speed recovery to continue over the coming quarters... 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly “Vaccine boost” to take time, let’s talk about debt A string of good news from COVID-19 vaccine producers may be followed by further positive updates in the coming weeks, but it is likely to take longer for the “vaccine boost” to reach much of Sub... 20th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Debt relief: the state of play and what’s next There has been much less progress towards debt relief for African economies than many had hoped. And governments’ diverse array of creditors means that the “Common Framework” recently unveiled by the... 16th November 2020 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccines and wars... recoveries and restrictions... The announcement this week of a successful trial of a COVID-19 vaccine is without doubt good news, but the economic gains for Africa may not be as sweeping as many might hope. Meanwhile, Ethiopia... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Clashes in Ethiopia place dark cloud over outlook The escalation of political tensions in Ethiopia into outright military conflict threatens to morph into civil war that would push the economy into a deep recession and raise the risk of a sovereign... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopian tinderbox, soft South African recovery Frictions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray region turned into military confrontation this week, which will inflict damage not only on the population but also on the economy. In... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US election, oil output cuts, COVID-19 restrictions This week’s US election has yet to reach a conclusive result, but some of the potential downside risks facing the Middle East and North Africa appear to have diminished. Meanwhile, OPEC+ seems to... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in October was distorted by a pick-up in supplier delivery times and, if anything, the survey suggests that the recovery continued to lose steam at the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt and despair in SA & Zambia, election jitters South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Statement outlined harsh austerity measures, but it wouldn’t take much to knock the plans off course and leave debt on an unsustainable trajectory. In Zambia, there... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
