New virus waves to drag on the recovery

The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see further falls against the dollar this year, but fears of a repeat of the Taper Tantrum look overdone. One consequence is that EM central banks won’t turn to turn to monetary tightening as quickly as most currently expect.