Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Could weak ZAR, Q2 recovery keep SA rates on hold? The rand’s recent weakness against the US dollar is mostly due to domestic factors – like problems at Eskom – rather than general EM fears about the US-China trade war. Currency weakness has increased... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: What is to be done? Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa can quickly revive South Africa’s economy are fading. The real problems are all structural, so even if he does make bold policy changes – far from guaranteed... 7th August 2019 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look under Eskom’s hood, factory sentiment up Eskom’s latest annual report highlights that the firm’s woes run deeper than poor management and, until it is allowed to raise electricity tariffs significantly, the state will need to continue... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack New Eskom bailout rocks rand News that South Africa’s government agreed to provide another 60bn rand (US$4.2bn) bailout to Eskom between now and 2021 caused the rand to weaken by 2.3% against the US dollar due to fears that this... 31st July 2019 · 14 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom bailout, Kganyago sounds hawkish, CBN on hold This week’s Eskom rescue package didn’t go far enough to meaningfully address the firm’s problems, but was expensive enough to increase the risk of a sovereign debt downgrade in November. SARB... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Learning to live with slower Chinese growth Growth in China is slowing, but fears of a big drag on Africa are overdone. While the Asian giant’s demand for some commodities will soften, it will remain a key trade and investment partner. Indeed... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa rebound, rate cuts, Zambia bond rally Policymakers in South Africa reduced their key rate by 25bp this week, and we think that they will cut again later this year. Central banks in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana will probably join in on the... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Economy will finally turn the corner in 2020 Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below... 11th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Sino-Africa trade, Ethiopia crisis, weak investment in SA African leaders visiting China for a trade expo this week are sure to praise their ties with Beijing, but several big Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the region are being delayed or... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional tensions flare up The past month has been dominated by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and the risk of an outright conflict is rising. Admittedly, President Trump decided to call off airstrikes on... 26th June 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
