Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s PMI slumped to a decade low of 41.6 in September, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains very weak. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Dovish tone in Kenya, fiscal woes in Nigeria Kenyan policymakers held their key interest rate at 9.00% earlier this week, but dovish commentary strengthened our view that they will loosen policy next year. Nigeria’s central bank governor, by... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: More fragile than it looks Ethiopia’s investment-focused economic model has attracted widespread praise, but has also created dangerous external vulnerabilities. Were domestic instability or EM-wide risk aversion to cause... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates on hold, but cuts coming in Ghana & Nigeria Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana sang from the same hymn sheet this week by maintaining their key rates on hold. While we think that the window for monetary easing has now closed in... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil pledge, South Africa to cut rates Nigeria’s pledge this week to fully comply with its OPEC quota by lowering production levels would, if implemented, reduce GDP growth significantly. But given the country’s poor track record, we’re... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP, weak PMIs, but optimism from Eskom GDP figures from the region’s two biggest economies painted a mixed picture. While growth in Nigeria slowed a touch, the rebound in South Africa was stronger than we had expected. Even so, we think... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM financial markets not yet out of the woods The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Lebanon’s emergency, clouds over Dubai The latest preparations ahead of a listing Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Aramco, are unlikely to result in a shift in oil policy. Elsewhere, Lebanese policymakers are finally acknowledging... 5th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African reform: Two steps forward, one step back Officials in Ethiopia and South Africa enacted or proposed key economic reforms this month, while their peers in Nigeria retreated towards more protectionist policymaking. Recent developments have... 29th August 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. African inflation eases, Buhari (finally) names a cabinet South African inflation slipped to 4.0% y/y in July, suggesting to us that policymakers will cut their key rate to 6.25% in September. Risks to this view are, admittedly, growing. After delaying for... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Low oil prices mean focused pain & diffuse benefits The fall in oil prices this month will create both winners and losers in Africa. But the winners’ gains will be small and spread across dozens of countries, whereas pain will be concentrated in a few... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor More to the EM export slump than the trade war The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the... 20th August 2019 · 6 mins read
