Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Coronavirus: Oil prices will deal key economic blow The coronavirus will probably continue to spread in Africa, but the biggest economic hit will come from lower oil prices. Indeed, Angola may suffer a bigger fall in GDP than anywhere outside the worst... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus adds to headwinds facing African economies In line with our new, more pessimistic global outlook, we’re in the process of downgrading our 2020 growth forecasts for most African economies. Even if actual infection numbers in the region remain... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) Weak domestic demand in South Africa has narrowed the country’s current account deficit, which should provide some support to the rand and allow the SARB more space to loosen policy. We expect that... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While weak PMIs elsewhere in the EM world were partially due to spill over effects from the coronavirus, the sharp fall in the South African survey largely reflects domestic weaknesses. We suspect... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget brawl, no growth momentum in Nigeria South Africa’s budget speech this week struck a more realistic tone about the country’s dire economic situation, but we still think that there are a number of optimistic assumptions underpinning the... 28th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Warning lights across the region Recent news added to our general sense of pessimism about most African economies in 2020. While the region has yet to report any cases of the new coronavirus, falling commodity prices are already... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa prepares for budget, Nigeria’s PIB stumbles on South Africa’s 2020 budget speech – taking place next week – will lay out the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Given the grim economic backdrop and the need to provide aid to Eskom, tax hikes... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jan. 2020) The further rise in Nigerian inflation in January, to 12.1% y/y, suggests that border closures have continued to drive up food prices. This will limit the central bank’s scope to lower interest rates... 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa promises reform, Ethiopia delays vote, BoG to hold President Cyril Ramaphosa’s latest state of the nation address came against a grim backdrop of figures suggesting that the economy re-entered recession in Q4. The president’s plans to open up the... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
