Africa Economics Update SA: mixed March data point to a small Q1 expansion South Africa’s hard activity data for March showed a strong rebound in industrial sectors while the retail sector struggled. Over Q1 as a whole, GDP probably managed to expand by about 1.5% q/q on an... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from commodity price moves to flame out African economies have benefitted from the rally in commodity prices in recent months, but we think that most of the gains from the terms of trade improvements are behind us. In the coming quarters... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rand, third wave risks, power problems The South African rand has been a star performer amongst major EM currencies so far this year, but we think that it will suffer one of the biggest losses against the US dollar by year-end. Meanwhile... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly India-Covax-Africa channels, price pressures in SA India’s unabating second virus wave risks further delays to vaccine exports through the Covax initiative to much of Sub-Saharan Africa, which would set back economic recoveries further. South Africa... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Recoveries lifted by the commodity high… for now The sharp rises in copper and iron ore prices this month will have given a much-needed boost to African producers such as Zambia and South Africa. Gold also traded higher in April compared to March... 29th April 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in slow motion Slow vaccine rollouts, tight fiscal policy and weakness in tourism sectors will hold back recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa. Virus containment measures will probably remain in place for some time... 28th April 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook New virus waves to drag on the recovery The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see... 28th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Wage talks in SA, Nigeria tightens FX restrictions Mounting trade union pressure on South Africa’s government and state-owned enterprises to increase salaries poses a serious threat to the government’s fiscal austerity plans and any signs that the... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Delayed vaccination in SA, dovish SARB, downbeat IMF The announcement this week that South Africa is suspending the roll-out of Johnson&Johnson vaccines, on which it heavily relies, risks further delaying an already slow vaccine campaign. Meanwhile... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt relief stop gaps, South Africa’s jabs A flurry of global action this week to help improve low-income countries’ balance sheets is likely to provide only short-term relief and, in the meantime, efforts to provide longer-lasting help to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Talk of debt risks, fears over gas projects in Mozambique EM debt risks have been in the spotlight again this week following warnings from leaders of several multilateral organizations – and much of Sub-Saharan Africa stands out. The most immediate concerns... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Headwinds to the recovery start to build The economic data out of the emerging world for Q1 look reasonably strong, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks and a shift towards policy tightening are creating headwinds for some EMs. Activity in... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Not hopping on the bandwagon of EM rate hikes Central banks in Sub-Saharan Africa bucked a recent “trend” of interest rate hikes in other emerging markets this month. Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Angola all kept their... 30th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA monetary policy going its own way, naira to and fro South Africa’s monetary policy stance is likely to remain accommodative for some time, going against market expectations and the projection model of the Reserve Bank. In Nigeria, officials continued... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria stuck in stagflation, changing winds in Tanzania The past week has brought further evidence that Nigeria is suffering from stagflation and we suspect it’s a ‘chronic condition’ arising from poor policy choices rather than an ‘acute disease’. In... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
