Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy become a problem in EMs? For EMs, vaccine supply appears to be by far the biggest constraint on immunisation campaigns; vaccine hesitancy will probably rear its head at a much more advanced stage of rollout in most countries... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate jumped to a multi-year high of 5.2% y/y last month, the weakness of core inflation and the recent tightening of lockdown measures means that the Reserve... 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s recovery, all change in Tanzania The latest hard activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy started Q2 on a weak footing and, while there were signs of improvement in May, tighter containment measures are likely to have... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Filling gaps: vaccine supply in SSA & electricity in SA Leaders of G7 nations meeting this week are ramping up efforts to provide more vaccines to the developing world, which – along with the prospect of larger supplies from China – could give a lift to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery. 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Debt risks building, but mostly a medium-term concern Growing political turmoil in Latin America over recent weeks has raised concerns about public debt, though vulnerabilities are most likely to crystallise over the medium term. Meanwhile, EM currency... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past few weeks and Turkey and India (which suffered large outflows in April and May) have started to see renewed inflows. Even if... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira devalued for real, utility deals in Ethiopia & SA Policymakers in Nigeria appear to have bowed to pressure to devalue the official exchange rate, which will probably improve the public finances and help unlock multilateral financing. That said, a... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Contrasting currency tales Currencies of the two biggest economies in Africa have had contrasting fortunes recently, with Nigeria’s official naira exchange rate recently devalued but the South African rand soaring on the back... 27th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s debt plans, SA wages, Africa summit in Paris External borrowing plans put forward by Nigeria’s president this week would leave the debt position even more vulnerable to falls in the naira. In South Africa, signs that the government is opening... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Vaccine supplies drying up, delaying recoveries Sub-Saharan Africa’s already slow vaccination campaigns received another blow with news this week that a key supplier, India’s Serum Institute, is delaying shipments further. African policymakers will... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
