Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN maintains interest rates and disruptive FX rules Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and will probably continue to do so over 2021-23. And the central bank’s insistence on maintaining a strong... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA to struggle to get back on economic feet after July hit South Africa’s hard activity data for July underscored the severe blow to the retail and manufacturing sectors from violent unrest and tighter virus restrictions. While much of the hit has probably... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets appear to have eased over the past month, helped by a pickup in portfolio flows into South East Asia and India. Looking ahead, even if rising US Treasury... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 17.0% y/y in August was, once again, driven by easing food price pressures, although core inflation also eased. This is likely to reassure... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Putting risky asset valuations into context This Update compares the valuations of the twelve different “risky” asset classes that we cover on our Asset Allocation service, both relative to one another and to the yields of “safe” assets, as... 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards... 13th September 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound looks unconvincing After weakening over the preceding two weeks, the US dollar has rebounded against most other currencies this week. Nonetheless, last week’s disappointing payrolls report and the slightly less upbeat... 10th September 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3... 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: debt risks loom larger with escalating conflict Ethiopia’s escalating internal conflict has reignited concerns about the country’s public debt position. While debt dynamics may not look that worrisome on the surface, the political situation... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s new president off to a good start, SOEs in SA Zambia’s newly elected president has wasted no time to push to restore macroeconomic stability, and reassure investors. But recent concerns about hidden debts could pose a risk to the debt... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
