Africa Economics Weekly Naira devaluation, uncertainty in CIV, industrialisation Nigeria appears to have devalued the official naira exchange rate this week but the move has, if anything, further dented hopes for a shift towards a market-driven and unified exchange rate regime... 10th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Grim budget in SA, Nigeria’s FX buzz and debt woes South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the government plans to turn to harsh austerity to try to deal with the legacy of higher debt, but this is unlikely to be politically sustainable in... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Not out of the woods The recovery in global risk appetite and in commodity prices has eased strains in balance of payments across the region. But conditions remain much worse than the they were before the crisis flared up... 23rd June 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Taking stock of the EM recovery The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers, suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in... 22nd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira unity, China debt talks, South Africa’s budget Nigeria’s government is rumoured to seek the merger of the country’s main exchange rates, but a unified and market-determined naira still seems far away. A speech by Chinese president Xi Jinping shed... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Three key points on the latest export data EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that most EM currencies will rebound further While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s finances, debt relief uptake on the rise Nigeria’s revised budget for 2020 is nearing a final hurdle of approval, but the deficit will probably exceed the government's expectations. And despite the recent rise in oil prices and easing... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan debt, South African court ruling Angola’s debt problem returned to the fore this week as the government announced that it is seeking debt relief under a G20 initiative and to reprofile oil-related debts, but we think that more will... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
