Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs suggest the worst may be over for EM industry While we would interpret the May PMIs with caution, the small rise in the EM manufacturing PMI last month tallies with high-frequency indicators and suggests that EM activity is probably past the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Private creditor debt talks, SA budget constraints The past week has brought private sector debt relief a step closer for the region, although we suspect that talks will drag on. Similarly, the road ahead for an ambitious infrastructure spending plan... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Lockdowns lifting Governments across much of Sub-Saharan Africa have moved towards lifting coronavirus containment measures in recent weeks but, with the exception of South Africa, this has much more to do with... 29th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update African debt risks: five key questions This Update answers five questions we are asked most frequently on sovereign debt risks in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there are lots of factors at play, it seems likely that governments in much of the... 26th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s slump, SOE problems, naira still struggling The activity figures coming out of South Africa continue to make for depressing reading and the economic slump is causing growing problems at SOEs. Eskom remains the main risk for the public finances... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Survey blues in South Africa, Nigeria’s budget woes Figures published in South Africa this week gave an early indication of the scale of economic devastation caused by the country’s lockdown. The risks to our forecast for a 6.5% fall in GDP this year... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt relief, Nigeria’s exchange rates Debt relief proposals for low-income African economies that would include commercial creditors are taking shape, although our sense is that restructurings are most likely to be relatively modest and... 1st May 2020 · 5 mins read
