Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African economy stumbles, oil price falls Q2 GDP figures released in South Africa this week weren’t quite as ugly as we had feared, which has prompted us to revise up our full year growth forecast (to -8.5% from -11.0%). Even so, the country... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic pulse: The latest on Africa The recent drop in new Covid-19 cases in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to encourage policymakers to further relax restrictions on economic activity, which will give a leg up to recoveries. 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa and the impact of weaker remittances Remittances to Africa appear to have held up fairly well so far but this is unlikely to be sustained. Weaker inflows will drag on economic recoveries and add to balance of payments strains in many... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Flurry of FX action in Nigeria, looming strikes in SA The Central Bank of Nigeria this week took further steps to tighten its oversight over foreign currency transactions and, even if the country’s multiple exchange windows are set to a unified rate, we... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political headwinds mount as recoveries stutter Many African policymakers have further eased coronavirus-related restrictions in recent weeks, but there are signs that economic recoveries have stalled at the start of Q3. High-frequency data from... 27th August 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack First waves still the big concern A handful of countries in East Asia and Eastern Europe (notably Korea and Poland) are suffering from rising coronavirus cases again, but the hit to activity there resulting from precautionary consumer... 25th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s limited fiscal space bites, SA banks in spotlight Nigerian government spending proposals for 2021, floated this week, signal just how much of a bind the authorities are in. Letting the naira weaken would be one way to address the large budget deficit... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest EM coronavirus numbers Emerging markets account for the majority of new global coronavirus cases each day (see Chart 1) and, while containment measures may be tightened sporadically, these are generally likely to be... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
