Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic toll on Africa’s tourism sectors will stay high Even as Sub-Saharan Africa gradually opens its doors to visitors, tourism sectors in the region face serious hurdles and we think that African economies dependent on the industry may be one of the... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fewer SA curbs, more SDRs, who knows what in Nigeria Improving virus numbers allowed South Africa to ease containment measures this week, which is likely to inject much-needed momentum into the recovery. A mooted increase in the IMF’s SDR allocations... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Commodity price rally no panacea for Africa The recent rally across almost all commodity prices is good news for resource-rich economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Balance sheets in oil producing countries like Nigeria and Angola will get a boost... 26th February 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Setting the scene for SA’s budget, Zambia’s rate hike South Africa’s budget speech next Wednesday will be closely watched for any changes in the government’s fiscal consolidation plans - any signs that officials are wavering on austerity could trigger a... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2020) Nigeria’s Q4 GDP data showed that a poor performance in the oil sector was more than offset by a continued rebound in the non-oil economy. While we think that some of the headwinds facing the economy... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA probably dodged double-dip recession in Q4 South Africa’s hard activity data for December suggest that the economy avoided contraction in Q4, but the pace of the recovery slowed and is likely to remain weak. 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine confusion, the humdrum of SONA Disappointing news from a trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the South African variant of COVID-19 will further complicate vaccination campaigns across the region, and could delay recoveries... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Revisiting the problems at Eskom Problems at South Africa’s state electricity firm, Eskom, are an increasingly painful thorn in the side of the economy with higher tariffs and an overhaul of the firm’s finances needed to put it on a... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Another blow to vaccine distribution in Africa Disappointing vaccine developments mean that policymakers in Africa could be forced to keep restrictions on activity in place for longer, delaying economic recoveries and deepening scarring effects. 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Un)Common Framework, a little cheer in South Africa Zambia has become the latest country – after Chad and Ethiopia – to seek debt restructuring under the G20’s Common Framework, but tough negotiations lie ahead and few other countries are likely to go... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in January appears to hide underlying weakness in activity on the back of virus-related restrictions. Even with some signs of a break in the clouds over... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Different IMF takes on fiscal policy, Nigeria’s funding gap The IMF’s campaign encouraging governments to broaden fiscal support to prop up recoveries does not seem to extend far and wide. While the Fund appears to be backing a pause in Kenya’s fiscal... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
