Africa Economics Update CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy performed strongly in the middle of Q4 and the early evidence is that the latest Omicron-driven virus wave inflicted only minimal... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 5.9% y/y in December, probably tilting the Reserve Bank more in favour of continuing to tighten monetary policy. But with soft core price... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year. 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) The surprise rise in inflation in Nigeria, to 15.6% y/y in December, will more likely than not prove to be a blip. We don’t think that policymakers will rush to raise interest rates in response. 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC leadership contest, Ghana’s debt, Ethiopia’s conflict Leftist factions of South Africa’s ruling ANC already appear to be gearing up to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa in December’s leadership election and this is likely to push fiscal policy in a... 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron sweeps across the emerging world The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s... 14th January 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022 In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The latest on South Africa’s Omicron experience The recent sharp fall in virus cases in South Africa provides an early encouraging sign that Omicron-driven outbreaks may run their course relatively quickly. In South Africa’s case, the health system... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus waves across SSA, SARB tightening cycle After a week filled with central banks around the globe pivoting in a more hawkish direction, we have now pencilled more hikes into our interest rate profile for South Africa (but only after a pause... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
