Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI tanked in July as activity was hit by violent unrest and tighter virus containment measures. And while activity is likely to rebound this month, South Africa’s... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds over Asia, bright spots in EM Europe & Lat Am While the pandemic continues to hold back recoveries in Southeast Asia, the near-term outlook appears brighter in Emerging Europe and Latin America. However, low vaccine coverage in the latter means... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Delta threat building The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the... 29th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: rate hike risks easing, FX rules surprise Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and, if we’re right in expecting the economic recovery to disappoint, policy settings are likely to remain... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Vaccines and variants in SSA, post-unrest fallout in SA A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dovish SARB to keep rates low for some time Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and the dovish tone of the communications supports our view that interest rates won’t rise until the middle of next year... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics South Africa after the unrest There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The latest drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.8% y/y in June, is likely to reassure policymakers that price pressures are softening and that policy tightening is not necessary to curb... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
