Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa’s Eco: Meet the new franc Rebranding the West African CFA franc as the “Eco” will have little economic effect; the new currency seems likely to be governed by the same FX regime as its controversial predecessor. The move may... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade figures, Kenya’s drought, Ugandan inflation The increase in South Africa’s trade surplus in November might look like good news at first glance, but it is merely a reflection of the weak economy. In Kenya, recently released data show that the... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian prices jump, CFA rumours overdone Nigerian inflation figures released this week supported our view that border closures are pushing up prices in the country. We expect that this will prompt policymakers to delay interest rate cuts... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa falters in Q4, SSA oil production tumbles Grim output data for October and widespread power cuts added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. Even if the country does dodge a recession, recent weakness suggests... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Nov.) South African inflation stayed very weak in November, but petrol prices will push up the headline rate in December. Despite a flagging economy, we doubt that the SARB will cut its key policy rate... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month to 3.6% y/y still leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target paving the way for further interest rate cuts over the next twelve months or... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa falters, Nigeria FX bans fail, Kenya rail troubles As we’d expected, figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. Early signs are that conditions remained difficult in Q4, raising the risk of another technical... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in November, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian rates on hold, Kenya cuts, SAA losing altitude Monetary policymakers in Nigeria and Ghana kept their key rates on hold this week, while their Kenyan peers loosened policy. We expect that the next move in all three countries will be a cut... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian weakness, Dovish SARB, big Zambian rate hike Figures released this week added to the evidence that Nigeria’s economy continued to falter in the second half of this year. South African policymakers sounded dovish at their latest MPC meeting, but... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
