Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eurobond-bonanza? SA’s current account in full swing African policymakers seem to be turning increasingly to international bond markets to finance budget deficits this year, which could add to existing debt vulnerabilities in Ghana and Nigeria... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic toll on Africa’s tourism sectors will stay high Even as Sub-Saharan Africa gradually opens its doors to visitors, tourism sectors in the region face serious hurdles and we think that African economies dependent on the industry may be one of the... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fewer SA curbs, more SDRs, who knows what in Nigeria Improving virus numbers allowed South Africa to ease containment measures this week, which is likely to inject much-needed momentum into the recovery. A mooted increase in the IMF’s SDR allocations... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Commodity price rally no panacea for Africa The recent rally across almost all commodity prices is good news for resource-rich economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Balance sheets in oil producing countries like Nigeria and Angola will get a boost... 26th February 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Setting the scene for SA’s budget, Zambia’s rate hike South Africa’s budget speech next Wednesday will be closely watched for any changes in the government’s fiscal consolidation plans - any signs that officials are wavering on austerity could trigger a... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2020) Nigeria’s Q4 GDP data showed that a poor performance in the oil sector was more than offset by a continued rebound in the non-oil economy. While we think that some of the headwinds facing the economy... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA probably dodged double-dip recession in Q4 South Africa’s hard activity data for December suggest that the economy avoided contraction in Q4, but the pace of the recovery slowed and is likely to remain weak. 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine confusion, the humdrum of SONA Disappointing news from a trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the South African variant of COVID-19 will further complicate vaccination campaigns across the region, and could delay recoveries... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Revisiting the problems at Eskom Problems at South Africa’s state electricity firm, Eskom, are an increasingly painful thorn in the side of the economy with higher tariffs and an overhaul of the firm’s finances needed to put it on a... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
